Head of Arco Vara: a U-turn in fiscal policy will significantly reduce the economic capacity of both individuals and businesses

Analysing the real estate market, Miko Niinemäe, Head of Arco Vara, believes that the market, currently moderately stagnant, is in for an interesting year ahead, with a sharp reversal in government fiscal policy starting to significantly erode the economic capacity of both individuals and companies.

Analysing the current state of the real estate market, Miko Niinemäe, head of residential property developer Arco Vara, believes that the current market is characterised by moderate stagnation. “It cannot be said that the real estate market is in a critical state, but a moderate stagnation is noticeable. While the market for lower-priced aftermarket and apartments in mountain districts is more active, the number of transactions for higher-priced new developments and especially for larger apartments is clearly more subdued at the moment,” he says.

However, sales of apartments in the Kodulahe quarter of the Rannakalda development, which was completed by Arco Vara in the Stroomi beach area this year, have progressed steadily well in Estonia and the wider Scandinavian market. “More than half of the completed apartments have been sold and will be handed over to new homeowners later this year. It is noticeable that in the case of new developments, customers are clearly dominated by home buyers, with fewer investors. The few apartments that are still unsold tend to be the larger ones,” Niinemäe notes.

VAT rise slows economic recovery

“What is clear is that the customer today is not ready to have this 2% added to the price of the property they are buying. As a home buyer’s daily expenses increase, their borrowing capacity decreases. This means that the pain of this increase will be largely borne by developers and builders,” Niinemäe predicts, stressing that developers competing in an already slightly stagnant real estate market are already discounting today to meet buyers’ expectations.

“Regulations will further slow down the development of the real estate market, which in turn will slow down the economic recovery of our country. In this sense, we are in for an interesting year ahead, where a sharp reversal in the country’s fiscal policy will start to have a profound impact on the economic capacity of both individuals and businesses, and everyone’s consumption and money flow into the economy, including imports and exports, threatens to decline significantly,” says Niinemäe.

According to Niinemäe, the Estonian real estate market is unlikely to experience any earthquake-like shocks in the coming year, but some consolidation is possible. “There probably won’t be any major shake-ups, but there may be some redistribution of land between businesses here,” says the manager.

Functional use of space is more important than a smart home

The results of this year’s Kantar Emor real estate market survey showed that home buyers value well thought-out planning more than square metres. “Clients tend to prefer smaller apartments with a functional layout, where every square metre is cleverly used. This is also the case for our Rannakalda development,” says Niinemäe.

Niinemäe has also noticed a growing attentiveness among buyers to the quality of the property they are buying. “Clients have become more knowledgeable and have started to do much more detailed background research on the property they are buying and are interested in what the price includes,” he adds.

The developer was most surprised to learn from this year’s Emor real estate market survey that customers who have recently moved home are most concerned about the smart home solution for newer properties, which often does not work as expected.

“In the light of the recent study, we have to admit that we have chosen the right path in Rannakalda by focusing on ease of use and creating a family-friendly integrated living environment rather than on the latest technology in the form of smart home solutions, because indeed, systems that promise great ease of use are often flawed and, as you can see, when they are flawed, they actually cause resentment among buyers,” Niinemäe explains.

Summing up the nature of today’s real estate landscape, Niinemäe says that the big opportunities are now more of a waiting game.žiim and this is reflected in the activities of major international and domestic investment funds. “It seems that the major investment opportunities have not yet materialised. However, the 2024 deadline could be extended. 2009 will bring promising opportunities for those in a good financial position and ready to react quickly, especially from an investor perspective,” Niinemäe concludes.